The cost of creating a Family

“When are you having children?” It’s a question millions hear in cafés, offices, and family gatherings — one that once felt like a natural milestone in adulthood. Yet increasingly, it’s a question met with hesitation, anxiety, or a straight-up shrug. Around the world, young adults are wanting children but delaying or forgoing parenthood — and economic uncertainty is the invisible force reshaping this fundamental life decision.

Fertility decisions have never existed in a vacuum. But in the 21st century, the economic landscape — from precarious jobs to skyrocketing housing costs and global recessions — has become a defining backdrop against which people assess whether they can or should build a family. Recent global reports suggest this isn’t a personal failure or cultural shift alone — it’s a structural and socioeconomic phenomenon with broad implications for individuals, economies, and societies at large.

A Global Fertility Downturn

The world’s fertility patterns are shifting in dramatic ways. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen to well below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman — the level needed to maintain population size without immigration. For instance, England and Wales recently recorded a fertility rate of just 1.41, the lowest in modern history, with younger adults particularly delaying childbearing due to economic concerns like housing and childcare affordability.(The Guardian)

Meanwhile, in Chile — traditionally a region with relatively higher birth rates — the total fertility rate has dropped to around 1.03 births per woman, lower even than Japan’s famously low rate. Economic pressures, rising living costs, and limited support for working parents are key drivers.(Financial Times)

These trends are not isolated. Across high-income countries, fertility rates have halved from mid-20th-century levels, creating a demographic reality that economists warn could slow economic growth and increase the burden on social support systems as populations age.(Reddit)

The Economics of Fertility: More Than a Number

At its core, fertility is a decision about the future — and economic uncertainty directly clouds how people envision that future.

1. Work, Unemployment, and Job Stability

Research shows that economic conditions at the time people enter the workforce can have a long-lasting impact on their fertility patterns. Women who graduate into a market with higher unemployment rates are significantly less likely to have children many years later. A large cross-national analysis found that a 3-percentage-point higher unemployment rate at graduation was associated with about a 14 % reduction in birth probabilities half a decade later — even after controlling for marital patterns.(Springer)

Economic uncertainty — especially job insecurity and precarious work contracts — can delay key life milestones such as marriage and stable employment, which in turn postpones family formation.

2. Perception Matters — Not Just Statistics

It’s not only objective conditions that shape decisions — perceptions do too. Studies measuring economic uncertainty conclude that repeated spells of joblessness, unstable contract work, and broader economic anxiety significantly dampen the desire to have children. Individuals facing the same economic conditions might have different fertility choices, depending on how they perceive their economic prospects and capacity to support a family.(MDPI)

The Price of Childhood: Housing, Education, and Everyday Costs

Economic uncertainty often isn’t a distant abstract — it’s felt in everyday expenses.

Rising Living Costs

The cost of raising a family — from a stable home to childcare to education — has ballooned in many countries, adding to fertility pressures. In the United States, for example, soaring housing costs have been linked to dramatic fertility declines. One study estimated that if housing costs had stayed stable since the 1990s, millions more children might have been born.(New York Post)

Housing stress isn’t unique to the U.S. Young couples in cities worldwide are facing similar squeezes — from New York to Nairobi to London — where high rents and mortgages mean fewer resources are available for raising children.

Employment, Productivity, and Support

Job insecurity compounds these pressures. In economies where contract work and short-term jobs are common, people are less likely to feel confident delaying gratification and investing in long-term commitments like parenthood. This dynamic is particularly acute where safety nets like paid parental leave, affordable childcare, and supportive family policies are limited.

The UNFPA Perspective

In mid-2025, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released a landmark report arguing that declining fertility rates are not primarily about choice — they are about barriers that strip people of real choice.(The United Nations Office at Geneva)

According to the report:

Financial limitations were the top reason people reported for having fewer children than they wanted.
Fear of the future — including economic insecurity, job instability, and broader societal risks — came next.
Gender disparities in domestic responsibilities — where women often shoulder a disproportionate share of unpaid care and household work — also contribute to delayed family formation.

Importantly, the UNFPA emphasized that simplistic policy responses like one-off cash bonuses are not sufficient. Instead, structural investments — affordable housing, quality childcare, accessible healthcare, paid parental leave, and gender equality in work and caregiving — are essential to expand real reproductive choices.

Uncertain Times Trigger Shifts in Fertility Intentions

External shocks like pandemics further underscore how fragile fertility intentions can be in times of stress. During the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and health uncertainties caused a measurable decline in fertility intentions in China, especially in urban areas with higher income and greater uncertainty.(PubMed)

This pattern highlights a broader truth: when the future feels uncertain, people defer long-term commitments — marriage, home ownership, and children — until conditions feel more secure.

The modern fertility landscape is more than a demographic curiosity. Falling fertility rates have economic and social consequences:

Aging Population and Economic Growth

An aging population — where fewer workers support more retirees — can strain social systems and slow economic growth. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns that without strategic shifts, aging populations will exert downward pressure on income growth in many member countries in the coming decades.(The Wall Street Journal)

Labor Forces and Innovation

Lower fertility today translates into smaller future workforces. This can reduce innovation, slow job market dynamism, and increase competition for skilled workers. Migration can ease some pressures, but economic structures and social systems will still need adaptation.

Despite the challenges, there are paths forward,for the future.

Policy Interventions

Countries around the world are experimenting with policy responses. For example, China recently introduced childcare subsidies to make parenthood more affordable — an acknowledgment that financial barriers are central to fertility decisions.(Reuters)

Nordic countries, long cited as models for family support, combine generous parental leave, childcare support, and flexible work arrangements — demonstrating that cohesive social policies can mitigate fertility pressures even under economic stress.

Changing Workplace Norms

Better support for work-life balance — including flexible hours and remote work — may also help couples reconcile career goals with family aspirations.

Social Safety Nets

Expanding access to healthcare, affordable housing, and quality early childhood education can reduce the perceived risk of family planning and nurture confidence in the future.

Conclusion: Fertility and Economic Confidence

Fertility pressure in the age of economic uncertainty is not merely about decisions people make in private. It reflects broader societal conditions and structural realities. When economic stability feels out of reach, when housing is unaffordable, when job security is fragile, many delay or forego parenthood — not necessarily because they don’t want children, but because they fear that having them could compromise their future prospects.

Conversations about fertility cannot be disentangled from conversations about economic policy, social support, and the future of work. If societies wish to support families and sustain balanced demographics, they must address the root causes of economic uncertainty rather than its symptoms alone.

In the end, choices about children are deeply personal — but they are shaped by very public forces. Recognizing and responding to those forces is key to understanding fertility pressure in our times.

Fertility Pressure in the Age of Economic Uncertainty