A Digital Storm That Didn’t Match Reality

The overbearing narrative against President William Ruto has been building for more than a year in Kenya’s digital spaces through criticism of TikTok activists, Gen Z protesters and social media users who utilized hashtags calling for his resignation and predicting he would only serve one term. To anyone paying attention to that conversation, it would appear that Kenyans had overwhelmingly rejected him.

However, the outcome of the by-elections provided a very different perspective. The mood online did not reflect the actual decision-making of voters when they cast their votes, as the political coalition supporting Ruto’s leadership achieved substantial victories, winning nearly all contested seats. Even in high-profile constituencies such as Mbeere North and Malava, where the opposition had anticipated a strong showing, the coalition showed weakness.

Opposition groups and the online forum’s views incorrectly predicted that the by-elections would illustrate that Kenyans were done with Ruto’s presidency, believing that the frustrations in digital form would be evident in their voting decisions. However, the anticipated wave of dissatisfaction voting failed to materialize, instead, Ruto’s coalition secured a significant victory in the by-elections, winning 18 out of the 24 contested seats, demonstrating the continued presence of Ruto’s enduring base.

The Growing Gap Between Social Media and the Electorate

The results of the recent elections reinvigorated the debate surrounding the divide between the Kenyan voting base and the growing online community in Kenya. Social media is a tool that can amplify dissatisfaction among youth and urbanites; however, this demographic accounts for only a small part of the voting population. The by-elections provided a dramatic illustration of this gap; they indicated that Kenya’s political landscape is shaped far more by the influence of the ground game, the strength of local leadership, and an individual’s allegiance to their community than it is by the outrage expressed on the Internet.

For Ruto, the results of these elections provided an important strategic advantage heading into the elections of 2027. Recent online narratives had suggested that President Ruto had lost national support in recent months as evidenced by the belief that he would lose his re-election bid in 2027. However, his recent by-election success demonstrated that he has a viable pathway to being re-elected in 2027; while his by-election victories do not guarantee him success in 2027, they demonstrate that he is organized, committed, and still has the support of many voters throughout Kenya.

A clear takeaway from these by-elections is the disconnect between the online political debate and how voters actually made their decisions in the voting booth. Online political conversations are often fast-paced and loud; however, the actual political direction of Kenya will ultimately be determined at the polling stations. While Ruto’s opponents may be dominating timelines in social media, the overall message from these elections is that the voting public views things differently than those who are currently engaged in the online political debate; this election has given President Ruto renewed confidence and also challenged him.